The P/E 10 ratio is a valuation measure generally applied to broad equity indices that use real per-share earnings over 10 years. The P/E 10 ratio also uses smoothed real earnings to eliminate the fluctuations in net income caused by variations in profit margins over a typical business cycle. The P/E 10 ratio is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio or the Shiller PE ratio.
Key Takeaways:
- The P/E 10 ratio is a valuation measure for equities that uses real per-share earnings over 10 years.
- The P/E 10 ratio also uses smoothed real earnings to eliminate net income fluctuations.
- The P/E 10 ratio is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio or the Shiller PE ratio.
Understanding the P/E 10 Ratio
The ratio was popularized by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, author of the bestseller “Irrational Exuberance,” who won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2013. Shiller attracted attention after he warned that the frenetic U.S. stock market rally of the late-1990s would turn out to be a bubble.
The P/E 10 ratio is based on the work of renowned investors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd in their legendary 1934 investment tome “Security Analysis.” The investors attributed illogical P/E ratios to temporary and sometimes extreme fluctuations in the business cycle. To smooth a firm’s earnings over a period, Graham and Dodd recommended using a multi-year average of earnings per share (EPS)—such as five, seven, or 10 years—when computing P/E ratios.
How to Calculate the P/E 10 Ratio
The P/E 10 ratio is calculated as follows: take the annual EPS of an equity index, such as the S&P 500, for the past 10 years. Adjust these earnings for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI)—that is, adjust past earnings to today’s dollars. Take the average of these real EPS figures over the 10 years. Divide the current level of the S&P 500 by the 10-year average EPS number to get the P/E 10 ratio or CAPE ratio.
The P/E 10 ratio varies a great deal over time. According to data first presented in “Irrational Exuberance” (which was released in March 2000, coinciding with the peak of the dotcom boom), and updated to cover the period 1881 to August 2020, the ratio has varied from a low of 4.78 in December 1920 to a high of 44.20 in December 1999. As of August 2020, the historic P/E 10 average was 17.1.
Using market data from both estimated (1881 to 1956) and actual (1957 onward) earnings reports from the S&P index, Shiller and John Campbell found that the lower the CAPE, the higher the investors’ likely return from equities over the following 20 years.
Shortfalls of the P/E 10 Ratio
A criticism of the P/E 10 ratio is that it is not always accurate in signaling market tops or bottoms. For example, an article in the September 2011 issue of the American Association of Individual Investors Journal noted that the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 was 23.35 in July 2011.
Comparing this ratio to the long-term CAPE average of 16.41 would suggest that the index was more than 40% overvalued at that point. The article suggested that the CAPE ratio provided an overly bearish view of the market since conventional valuation measures like the P/E showed the S&P 500 trading at a multiple of 16.17 (based on reported earnings) or 14.84 (based on operating earnings). Although the S&P 500 did plunge 16% in one month from mid-July to mid-August 2011, the index subsequently rose more than 35% from July 2011 to new highs by November 2013.
Related Terms: Earnings per share, Cyclically adjusted earnings, Consumer price index, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd.
References
- The Nobel Prize. “Robert J. Shiller”.
- John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller. “Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends”, Page 664. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No. 3, 1987l
- Robert Shiller. “Online Data Robert Shiller”. Download U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio.
- American Association of Individual Investors. “A Cautionary Note about Robert Shiller’s CAPE”.
- Macrotrends. “S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart”.
